(The Economic Times 16th June 2008)
After a dream bull run over the last 3-4 years, the domestic stock markets are on a downward trend from the beginning of this year. They have dropped so much of late that they are now among the worst-performing in the league of emerging markets. With a flurry of bad news coming in, it looks like nothing is going right for the markets. These are some of the factors that led to the markets crashing recently: High inflation rate Inflation is ruling high across the world. Here, the inflation rate has touched a 45 months' high and is ruling over eight percent. Analysts and market men are predicting that inflation will not cool down in the near future due to the recent price hike in oil. Higher petrol and diesel prices will have a cascading effect on commodity prices which will also be visible in the inflation numbers over the next few weeks. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points. This week, the RBI increased the repo rate to signal a further tightening of the monetary policy to control inflation. High crude oil price The soaring crude oil price is one of the main dampeners in the stock markets world over. Recently, the crude oil price touched an all-time high of USD 139 per barrel. Many analysts are predicting it will touch USD 150 per barrel in the near future and it might even go up to USD 200. They are unanimous that if crude prices surges further or even stays at the current levels , it will impact the global economic growth. FII selling pressure Investments from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were a prime driver of the domestic stock markets over the last couple of years. The FII investment trend has been reversed this year as they have taken out more than USD 5 billion from the markets. This could be attributed to the urgent need for liquidity in their parent companies abroad. Also, given the current market situation in India, FIIs are unlikely to bring in fresh money in near the future - at least till they are see some improvement in the macroeconomic environment and global inflation levels. Market sentiments The sentiments in the market are quite bearish, and at times, it seems like there are no buyers in the markets (neither foreign institutions nor local mutual funds). The markets have dropped quite significantly from their peak levels. The Sensex has come down to around 15,000 from the earlier 21,000 levels, and the Nifty has come down from 6,200 levels to 4,500 levels. Many stocks have dropped by 40 to 60 percent from their peak levels. Stocks and sectors that led the market rally last year are the worsthit in this correction. Investors are not sure whether they should sell at these levels or buy more to average out their purchase prices. Here are two factors investors should think about before making their decisions on further investments or cutting losses in the market : Existing positions in the market: People who invested in blue chip or fundamentally strong mid-cap should hold on to their positions . However, investors should look at a long-term investment horizon for their positions. Market sentiments are quite bearish at the moment and further downfalls from current levels cannot be ruled out. Market traders and analysts are expecting more negative news from the global as well as local macroeconomic fronts. Taking fresh positions: Analysts advise investors to stay with cash in crashing market conditions. However, there is no dearth of opportunities for investors with a risk appetite. There are many stock-specific and sector-specific investment opportunities available in the market. Many blue chip stocks are available at quite reasonable prices. Investors should look at investing in blue chip and quality midcap stocks with a long-term perspective.
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