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Tech view: Buying conviction utterly lacking (Business Standard 27th Feb 2008)The markets kicked off trading on an optimistic note, but the session ended in an insipid manner. The bulls clearly lacked buying conviction inspite of positive overseas cues and improved volumes.The market breadth was positive as the combined exchange figures were 2082:1832. The capitalisation of breadth was also positive as the commensurate figures were Rs 9463 crore:Rs 9349 crore.The indices closed at the lower end of the intraday range and that too with positive market breadth. The intraday range at 5220 / 5320 was overcome on the upside as the opening itself was firm.Technicians will note that the close was below the open, indicating a key reversal on the charts. Ahead of the budget, it indicates a sentiment of non-expectation. The intraday range in the coming session will be 5195 / 5360.Traded volumes must improve above the 5360 levels if the upmove is to be sustainable. The number of trades increased ...

Tech view: Volumes hold the key (Business Standard 26th Feb 2008)The markets had a bullish session as the overseas cues kept the undertone optimistic, though not outrightly exuberant. The traded volumes were subdued and the market breadth was positive. The combined exchange figures were 2475:1435. The capitalisation of breadth was also positive as the commensurate figures were Rs 11551 crore:Rs 4120 crore.The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range and that too on positive market breadth. The poor volumes are partly because of the wait-and-watch approach ahead of a major news trigger (budget), as also the impending derivatives series expiry.The intraday range of 5100 / 5300 held as the Nifty retraced from 5281 itself. The intraday range in the coming session will be 5220 / 5320 due to the small base effect on Tuesday. Trading volumes must improve above the 5320 levels if the upmove is to be sustainable. More

Tech View: Get set for post-Budget breakout Business Standard 25th Feb 2008) A lacklustre week ended with net losses across most sectors except for IT stocks, which saw a small recovery. The Nifty closed at 5,110.75, down 3.62 per cent while the Sensex was down 4.23 per cent at 17,349 points. The Defty was down 4.4 per cent and the Junior was down 3.71 per cent while the NSE Midcaps lost 1.69 per cent. Background signals were poor. Volumes were low and advances were outnumbered by declines. The BSE500 was down 3.3 per cent. FIIs were net buyers, domestic institutions were net sellers. Outlook: Next week is likely to see the continuation of range trading in the early stages with high intra-day volatility. Since the Nifty is on reasonable support, it is likely to move up a bit, hitting resistance at 5,350-5,400. The Budget next Friday could provoke a decisive breakout in either direction. Rationale: This has been a low-key settlement with very low volumes. The market has remained stuck i...

Market may see a bout of upward movements (The Hindu Business Line 18th Feb 2008) Possibility of bonus shares from RPower may boost sentiment Last week, there were attempts to overcome the negative sentiment by a few players on the equity street through sporadic buying or short covering. But, the traded volumes could not signal the beginning of a fresh momentum. Psychologically, the market has entered into a drift mode. In this situation, valuations can significantly change either way despite low volumes. In a way, this is, of course, better than the recent panic, but does not throw up any serious indication for the direction — even for the short term. This also signals that the long-term investors are yet to enter the ring. More

Sensex rose 817 points (The Economic Times 15th Feb 2008)Recovery or another bull trap? That was the question market players were asking each other as major indices surged nearly 5% on Thursday. Their scepticism may well be justified. Last week’s rally ran into a wall of selling fury, and the bad news from the primary market has only worsened sentiment further. Throw in some uninspiring economic data and foreign fund outflows, and the picture begins to appear even bleaker. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 817.5 points or 4.8% at 17,766.6, recording its fourth biggest rise in percentage terms, while the broader CNX S&P Nifty rose 272.6 points or 5.5% at 5202. Brokers said the upswing was fuelled by covering of short positions by traders. But bulls had something to feel happy about. Second line shares were in demand, with the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices rising 4-5%. Market-watchers, however, caution that India still remains vulnerable to a global selloff, despite the relative super...

Market still finding its feet (The Hindu Business Line 11th Feb 20011)Market is yet to find its feet on a shifting ground. The current psychology of various market participants suggests that the benchmark index may find it difficult to break a range of 1000 points this week. Couple of months ago when the valuations were soaring, almost everyone seemed comfortable with the market’s “irrationality”. Now, when prices have gone downhill, there is no taker. Irrational? John Maynard Keynes is right: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.Behavioural change The great Indian equity premium party is not over and out. But the recent convulsions are symptomatic of behavioural change in the market place. Practitioners of behavioural finance would find the goings-on on the Dalal Street interesting. Behavioural finance acknowledges that behavioural anomalies may cause a wide divergence between the fair value and the market value. But these anomalies are unpredictable and ...

Earnings slowdown raises flag of caution (The Hindu Business Line 6th Feb 2008)If India Inc’s earnings numbers for the September quarter brought hints of a possible deceleration in growth, the December quarter numbers reiterate that an earnings slowdown is indeed in the offing and cannot be dismissed as a flash in the pan. Disappointments Overall profit growth for 1,500 listed companies slowed to 19 per cent, from 56 per cent in the same period last year. The profit slowdown has been triggered by a slowing topline growth, a sure sign that companies are running up against demand, pricing or capacity constraints in their business, rather than pressures on margins alone. There have also been a good number of disappointments in the numbers. A third of the companies have reported profit declines and there has been significant divergence in earnings within sectors such as engineering, construction and consumer. Positive surprises, if any, have come from unexpected quarters, in sectors such a...

Earnings growth may slow down to 17%: Raamdeo Agrawal (CNBC-TV18, Moneycontrol.com 5th Feb 2008) Raamdeo Agrawal, Director and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Securities, said the overall Q3 earnings were much been in-line with expectations and no positive surprises sprung up. But metals, cement and engineering results surprised negatively, he said, reports CNBC-TV18. While banking results outperformed in Q3, FMCG and IT results were also in-line with expectations. Although, he expects expects earnings growth to slow down from 21% to 17% for this year. Speaking on the IPO market, he said it will remain buoyant but issues will be priced lower. And interest rates will determine the direction of markets. Read the Complete Interview

'Investors should tone down expectations' (The Economic Times 5th Feb 2008)DSP Merrill Lynch head of research Jyotivardhan Jaipuria is upbeat about India story as companies are going at an average rate of 18-19%. In an interview he said global slowdown notwithstanding, the country still looks attractive to foreign investors. Excerpts: What is your reading of the latest batch of corporate numbers? We were expecting corporate numbers to be weaker than what they were over the past three-four years. Weaker in the sense, last three-four years we have seen a compounded annual growth of 27% while last year growth was around 35%. Overall, I would say numbers beat our estimates — both on operating and profits side. But yes they are weaker than before. This year we should end up with growth of 18-19%, which is good. In fact earnings growth will be 17-18% for the next couple of years. Earnings growth will decelerate but still be strong. What one needs to understand is that the globe is g...