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Too early for optimism on IT (Live mint.com 6th Feb 2008)The Bombay Stock Exchange’s IT (information technology) index is the only sectoral index to have fallen by less than 10% from its closing high in January. One of the reasons for the lower decline is the fact that IT stocks had already underperformed by a large margin in 2007.
But another factor was the bout of buying since late last week, on the premise that IT stocks were available very cheap. Prior to the relief rally, trailing valuations on frontline stocks were around 18 times trailing earnings. Now, valuations have reverted to about 20 times.
Remember, core operating profit has grown by just 18% for Tata Consulting Services Ltd (TCS) and Infosys Technologies Ltd in the first nine months of this fiscal, so that doesn’t leave much on the table. (For Wipro Ltd and Satyam Computer Services Ltd, it was even lower at 8% and 15%, respectively.) So far, the sound bytes from software and software services providers have been cautiously optimistic. While technology companies such as Intel Corp., which cater directly to end-consumers, have been hit by the economy slowdown in the US, software providers such as SAP AG and Oracle Corp. have sounded optimistic while releasing their December-quarter results. More

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