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Market Analysis

'Global outlook more uncertain now’ (The Hindu Business Line 22th Jan 2008) The US sub-prime crisis and global financial uncertainties seem to list high on the RBI Governor, Dr Y.V. Reddy’s list of concerns, a week before the quarterly review of the monetary policy on January 29.
Speaking to presspersons on the sidelines of the 5th convocation of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research and on the day of the meltdown in the Indian stock market, Dr Reddy said, “The global financial uncertainties were not entirely unanticipated but the intensity was not predicted nor was the duration expected. The outlook seems to be far more uncertain now for the global situation than before… There will be considerable attention paid to this in the monetary policy”. More
Capital market growth is priority concern: PM(The Hindu Business Line 22th Jan 2008)Reacting to the stock market crash, the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, today said that corrections do happen in the market and the orderly growth of the stock market was a priority concern for the Government.
Dr Singh told presspersons here that the fundamentals of the economy were eminently strong and the market would grow in an orderly fashion.
“I would like to assure the Indian public that sustaining growth in the capital market is a priority concern of the Government,” he added. More
F&O build-up triggers meltdown(The Hindu Business Line 22th Jan 2008)The sell-off witnessed in Indian stocks over the last two trading days, much like the correction in 2006, has its genesis in the excessive build-up in the futures and options section.
The open interest on NSE has been recording new highs ever since the beginning of this year. Investor confidence has been very high ever since the stock markets recovered from the October 2007 correction. The strength in that rebound spurred investors to roll over their leveraged positions in the expectation of windfall gains once the markets moved higher. The daily average open interest has been above Rs 1,00,000 crore ever since November 2007.
The disturbing feature in this increase in open interest is the predominance of stock futures. While Indian investors hedge through index futures and options, they prefer to buy stock futures mainly for speculation. More
Bears have a field day (Business Standard 22th Jan 2008)
Big IPOs and sub-prime turmoil squeeze liquidity.
A severe squeeze in liquidity in the domestic and the global markets over the last one week helped bears to make a killing on Monday, as they anticipated little buying support even at lower levels, said dealers. The bears, who bet on falling prices, sold heavily to drive down prices and created a sense of panic among retail investors. They knew that investors’ money is blocked in applications (refunds could take 15 days’ time) for the initial public offer (IPO) of Reliance Power. Also, foreign funds are hit by the global credit squeeze due to the US credit turmoil.
Normally, when the market plunges beyond certain levels, smart money moves in to buy at lower levels. However, on Monday, this was not seen leading many to believe that there is a shortfall in liquidity. More
110 sectors lose 10%-plus market-cap (Business Standard 22th Jan 2008)
Of the 129 sectors tracked by Business Standard’s research bureau, 110 sectors - including sugar, power, construction, refining, steel products and financial institutions - lost heavily over the last one week, wiping out over 10 per cent of their individual market value.
Out of these sectors, energy, capital goods, telecom, select utilities and steel stocks witnessed a much steeper fall in terms of percentage and value.
Power stocks, for instance, declined by 23.8 per cent, obliterating more than Rs 100,000 crore in just six trading days since January 14, 2008.
The housing and construction (including realty firms) sector met with a similar fate, reducing investor wealth by Rs 97,459 crore or 23.1 per cent. The oil and gas sector lost 21.2 per cent, eroding market value by Rs 154,326 crore.
Banking stocks fell 14.7 per cent, wiping out market-cap worth Rs 97,644 crore, while telecom stocks declined by 18.2 per cent erasing a market cap of Rs 79,228 crore. More

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