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Crystal Grazing

2008: equity markets will have to battle several headwinds (Live mint.com 1st Jan 2008)Will equities do as well in 2008 as they did in 2007? Will we see a continuation of the main trends of 2007? Or will the credit crisis in the West derail the bull market? It’s that time of the year when we all make predictions, never mind that nobody saw the subprime crisis coming last year.
Two markets of 2007
In fact, 2007 can be neatly divided into pre- and post-subprime. Between 1 January and 24 July 2007, the MSCI World Index rose by 9.4%. Between 24 July and 28 December, it fell by 1.7%. Emerging markets too saw a slowdown in returns post-subprime, but things were not as bad as in the developed world. The MSCI Emerging Market index was up 26.7% between 29 December 2006 and 24 July, but rose a comparatively tepid 7.8% between 24 July and 28 December.
The Sensex , however, broke loose from global trends and blazed a path all its own. Indian stocks zoomed after the subprime crisis hit the West. Between the beginning of the year and 24 July 2007, the Sensex gained 14.6%, while it went up 27.9% between 24 July and 28 December. The MSCI indices show that we’re the second best among all markets in the three months to 28 December and the third among all markets in the month to 28 December. More
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